US President Donald Trump has presented Iran with a sweeping 15-point ceasefire framework, delivered through Pakistan, that would require Tehran to dismantle its nuclear programme, surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and sever ties with regional proxy forces — in exchange for the lifting of all American sanctions and support for civilian nuclear energy.
The proposal arrives as the war launched jointly by the United States and Israel on February 28 enters its second month, with Iranian health ministry figures recording 1,500 deaths and 18,551 injuries as of Tuesday. Trump has described the diplomatic exchanges as "very good and productive conversations," though Tehran has consistently and publicly denied that any formal negotiations are underway.
The plan calls for a one-month ceasefire during which both sides would negotiate a permanent settlement. Its core demands include the physical dismantling of nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow — all three of which were struck by US forces during a 12-day Israeli-Iranian confrontation in June 2025 — as well as a permanent Iranian commitment never to develop nuclear weapons and the handover of its enriched uranium stockpile to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Additional terms would impose limits on the range and number of Iranian missiles, require an end to Iranian support for regional armed groups, and mandate the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
In exchange, Washington has offered the removal of all sanctions imposed on Iran and pledged support for electricity generation at the Bushehr civil nuclear plant, Iran’s only commercial reactor, located roughly 750 kilometres south of Tehran and operated with Russian-supplied uranium.
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, was closed to shipping by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) after US and Israeli strikes began. The IRGC has since permitted a limited number of vessels — primarily those flying Indian, Pakistani and Chinese flags — to transit the waterway. The partial closure has driven Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel, compared with roughly $65 before the conflict began.
Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye have been pressing for a formal peace meeting between US and Iranian representatives in Islamabad, with a target date of Thursday. Islamabad has publicly stated its readiness to host such talks, positioning itself as a neutral facilitator. Iranian-American economist Nader Habibi assessed the probability of negotiations materialising at around 60 percent.
Iran’s own conditions for ending the war, laid out by President Masoud Pezeshkian on March 11, diverge sharply from Washington’s framework. Tehran is demanding recognition of its legitimate rights, payment of war reparations, and firm international guarantees against future military aggression. Iranian officials have also called for the closure of all US military bases in the region and a new legal mechanism that would formalise Iran’s de facto control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
An Iranian source indicated that Tehran is prepared to offer guarantees it will never pursue nuclear weapons while insisting on its right to peaceful nuclear technology — a position broadly consistent with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which Trump unilaterally withdrew three years after it was signed. Under that agreement, Iran had committed to restricting uranium enrichment to civilian levels.
The war’s opening strike on February 28 also killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at his office in Tehran, a development confirmed by Iranian state media. His second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was selected as the new supreme leader within a week. Trump publicly questioned the wisdom of that choice in remarks to NBC News.
Iran’s military leadership has stated it cannot negotiate with a country that has attacked it twice during ongoing diplomatic exchanges over the past two years. Analysts note that the war has exposed a deepening rift between the IRGC and Iran’s political leadership. Zeidon Alkinani of Qatar’s Georgetown University observed that the conflict has brought those internal differences into sharp relief.
On the military side, as many as 3,000 US troops from the 82nd Airborne Division are expected to be deployed to the Middle East, signalling that Washington is preparing for a prolonged engagement even as it pursues a diplomatic off-ramp.
The domestic political calculus in Washington adds further urgency. Opinion polls have consistently shown that a majority of Americans oppose the war, and US midterm elections are scheduled for November. The combination of public opposition, surging energy prices and mounting casualties may be accelerating the push for a negotiated settlement — even as the two sides remain far apart on the fundamental terms of any agreement.
